Ongoing Turbulence Threatens US Airlines

I cannot remember a time when the US airline industry has faced greater turbulence and disruption than right now! So let's see what the latest news is...

1. By now you are aware that Delta and Northwest have joined United and US Airways in bankruptcy. While the chances of Delta and Northwest emerging as viable entities are pretty good, one can never be certain. United is still not guaranteed to emerge, though its prospects look better than ever for successful exit from bankruptcy in 2006. Northwest has deftly navigated a mechanics strike with replacements that were recruited and trained as a strike seemed imminent. Northwest should emerge with lower costs reasonably quickly since it is financially "healthier" and more focused than Delta. Delta is in poor shape financially and should have entered bankruptcy at least one year earlier when it's finances were not as dire as now.

The most significant external threat to all airlines right now is the extremely high price of fuel, with no relief in site. Even Wall Street favorite Jet Blue predicts losses in the near future. Airline analysts predict mergers or even liquidations in the next few years to reduce capacity and enable airlines to increase fares. Delta merging with Northwest? American acquiring Northwest? United linking with Continental? Your guess is as good as mine!!!

One bit of good news is that America West formally merged with US Airways this week, to become known as US Airways. Expect complete integration of systems (including frequent flyer programs) over the next year.

Bottom line: your frequent flier miles are probably still safe with Northwest, Delta and United. I would not hesitate to book on any of these airlines in the near future. But none of us can predict where fuel prices are headed, whether Asian bird flu could emerge and frighten travelers, or what terrorist attacks could emerge that place a dampener on travel.

2. An excellent article about hotel trends appeared in USA Today this week:

http://www.travelexpert.com/hotel/trends

I present a more detailed overview of hotel trends in this month's Luxury Escapes, including one unique angle on how to get luxury accommodations for less that I've never seen mentioned before -- head over to http://www.luxuryescapes.com for subscribing information.

3. When you plan your vacation travel, you should always be aware of the kind of weather you may experience. This is especially true when you plan vacations in unusual locales. For example, summer travel to Asia can have you enduring brutally hot, humid weather. Check out this web site for some guidance:

http://www.travelexpert.com/best-time-to-travel

4. I shall be doing an intense one day public seminar in New York on Sunday 13th November. You'll have the opportunity to pick up virtually everything I know in your quest for spectacular travel values. Check out the details by visiting:

http://www.travelexpert.com/seminar/new-york

Better yet, you can save $$$ if you sign up by October 25.

Finally, if you enjoy this free update, please fell free to forward to a friend. To sign up for your free travel alert, click here http://www.travelexpert.com

For comments -- my direct e-mail address is theo@travelexpert.com.

Until next time -- Theo

Theo

Dr. Theo Brandt-Sarif
9108 Hillboro Drive
Los Angeles, CA, 90034-1125
United States